Timing the Sector!

Since my first post on POT in Oct, fertilizer sector has been top of list. Now its trading more than 50% up. In fact look at CF in my SMFF fund. It is also doing very well even since Jan when I started that fund.

Dry bulk shipping is another hot sector that I have had recommended since last year. DSX, DRYS, TBSI have all given more than 3 opportunities for swing trades of more than 50% each. Again just look at the gains on dry bulk in my SMFF portfolio.

This is a very easy decision for me as I am up so much on there fertilizer and dry bulk. I will be cutting some of these shares from my portfolio.

Anyway, SMFF is an experiment to see how that kind of portfolio would do in long run, without any manipulation or active trading. I will keep you posted quarterly on how SMFF worked out.

SMFF Fund Update

Added SOLF on Feb 11: 2000 shares for 32,900
Total Value of the Fund is: $1,070,721.89
Cash: $7,306.75
Stock Value: $1,063,415.13
Watch the activity of the fund HERE as of Feb 14, 2008
P.S. Happy Valentine's day!

Fund Update

This is the stratification of the SMFF fund... (updated info from Friday)

It started at 1 Million and its current value is
Value: $1,074,281.53
Cash: $40,755.12
Stock Value: $1,033,526.42

Unclassified Market Cap : Unclassified Style 31.81%
Micro Cap : Value 21.96%
Small Cap : Growth 8.39%
Mid Cap : Blend 8.01%
Mid Cap : Growth 7.80%
Micro Cap : Blend 7.22%
Small Cap : Value 5.67%
Micro Cap : Growth 4.88%
Mid Cap : Value 4.26%

I see ACTU getting hit after that outlook. I think its a buying opportunity at these levels. I won't be surprised to see this stock above $6 again in 2008.

ISRG looking good again!

ISRG has been a stellar stock since the first time I brought it on stockdoctor in Aug 2007. It was just $199 back then. Later it climbed rapidly and here it was 50% up. My friend from 100thousandblog still hasn't sold his position since Aug 2007. I have a small position and I have managed to add to it on Friday. Lets see how it goes from here.

In the early 1970s, Dr. James Croak was one of the first Toledo-area
doctors to perform laparoscopic surgery, using small incisions and a telescopic
system that has become routine for many operations.
Now his son, Dr. Andrew Croak, is among local doctors taking laparoscopy to the next level, controlling robotic arms that hold cameras and surgical instruments from a console near the
operating table. Led by St. Vincent Mercy Medical Center, where robotic
surgeries have been performed for nearly five years, four Toledo-area hospitals
now have da Vinci Surgical Systems -- which cost roughly $1.5 million each --
from Intuitive Surgical Inc....Full Story from Toledoblade.com

I have started my own Hedge Fund!

No don't pour in the money yet...haha
Its a make believe hedge fund where I will be tracking the performance of some small/mid cap growth stocks. I started it with marketocracy.com.

Here is the sector allocation...


Information Technology 31.13%
Industrials 20.35%
Materials 18.76%
Health Care 12.52%
Telecommunication Services 5.89%
Financials 4.08%
Consumer Staples 3.03%
Consumer Discretionary 2.17%
Energy 2.08%

LINK to the FUND performance since inception few days back. I will keep you updated with the performance. My plan is to keep the fund as it is without any tampring for one year at least.

Fund started with 1 Million USD and its current value is:

Value: $1,037,017.65
Cash: $41,038.52
Stock Value: $995,979.14

OKAY lets start phase # 1 investing.

IBM acquires AptSoft Corp. and I am adding to my long time IBM position.

People who are starting with IBM for the first time should follow my age old advise about doing a phased investment. If you have 10,000 dollars to invest, start with 2,500 every day over next few days. This is definitely a intermediate to long term investment. I believe this stock is not only a great American classic, but is aware of the future needs of the world. I think valuation is just right for a great return for 2008-2010.

Good luck...and remember to phase it...you might get lucky and get some below $100 if market helps.

Red is the new theme in the stock markets

I have been busy with some personal things lately and have not been able to pay attention to the market much. Well looks like it was a good idea anyway! Markets have taken a plunge since the start of the year and even though some stocks appear very cheap, I am afraid even touching them with a 10 foot pole. I have always believed in hedging your investment, but now even more so. There are various option strategies that help you hedge your bets on individual stocks.

Now before you start stampeding me with nasty emails, dare I say that I still have some investment in stock (with downside protection).

What I recommend is wait and watch carefully....I get a feeling there would be opportunity. I will be watching with you and updating about some new investments for the year 2008. Just don't smoke your cash away during these volatile market days. Don't buy anything thinking "this is the bottom" and "it can't go any further down. In fact 90% of my picks have been at the 52 week high and 100% of them have been successful. So just keep cash handy and we will find some good investments in 2008. I know its hard to believe.

Merry Christmas everybody!

2007 was another great year for the stock market. I hope everybody here learned some trading disicpline this year and would try to trade less next year. No reason buying and selling the same stock 100's of time in a year That is plain counterproductive.

I have been getting a lot of emails lately (may be cause I have reduced the number of stock recommendations lately). I have replied to almost all of them over last couple of weeks. I felt like making a personal connection with some of the readers. Anyway, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everybody!

Blue Coat Systems Inc (BCSI) looks ready!

Since my post back in July HERE BCSI had gone up more than 50% at one point (1:2 Split adjusted). On july 16th (my first post day) split adjusted BCSI was $27.35. To put it in 100% club, it will have to hit $54.70. Its 52 week high was 53.37...which is just below 100%! I guess I will have to wait for this one to hit $54.70. I will let you know then...

This is the PR from Dec 3, 2007.
Blue Coat Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:BCSI), a leader in WAN Application Delivery and Secure Web Gateway, today announced that Gammon Construction Limited (Gammon), one of Asia's top construction contractors, has deployed Blue Coat(R) ProxySG(R) and ProxyAV appliances at its Hong Kong headquarters and its regional offices in mainland China, Singapore and Macau. The new implementation is designed to accelerate business applications and secure Web communications across the Wide Area Network (WAN) and distributed Internet gateway connection points for the company.

This and many other good news coming from the company makes it a perfect target for me to get back here. Again, I have bought some below $35 and will be adding periodically over this month. I can't see this one going much less than $35. It will be a blessing if this current downturn takes it below 35 (I could add more)

Potash (POT) up 18% since first posted in Oct 07'

In my first post on POT I talked about the chemicals and fertilizers being a hot sector and that still is the case. POT has moved more than 18% since that post. There is a rapid and unending demand for fertilizers in this modern fertilizer driven farming world and no farmer wants to grow crop without a little bit of potash in the ground. Potash is a giant in the sector with more than 30% of worlds supply comes from this company. They recently disclosed plans to build a $1.8 Billion mine. The project will boost the capacity of the company from 10.7m tones this year to 15.7m in 2012. Make way for this HULK people!


My post from Oct 9th
Fertilizers and Chemicals is the hot sector I am talking about. The companies in this sector are so hot, that it is almost irresistible to not get in here. It almost seems like its too late but I think there is significant room for growth and many fund managers love this company. There will have to be some serious problem in growth before we see some downturn. I think it might give another chance to get in soon....but I am not counting on it. I want to be in baby!!And as usual I always recommend get in with the leaders and POT is the leader by far.There are some others like MOS and TRA, but their accounts don't look anything like POT. (Does not mean they won't be hot. I like this sector all together and wont miss out)